Uploaded by Jennifer Strayhorn on August 10, 2018 at 1:03 am
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Double talk is everywhere and some say this is the buyer’s market now and also a renter’s market however let’s see if this is actually true or not.
"smart investors" will exit out at some point but they only make up a small part of mainly unqualified mums and dads and young people investors and real buyers who got swept up in this mania. If you want to buy at a good price, dont even think about anything for years as the USA example, the prices and whole states continued to get wiped out and now after 10 years!, the housing market is starting to rise again. Is Aust same as USA, no, many differences, but maths is maths when a crash occurs and Aust prices and debt and pro investment rules are way higher than the US was. So I myself will just let all this unravel and sit back with the other rational investors for many years as the implosion plays out just like it did in the US when the smoke clears and people and banks, companies are destroyed, then housing will be back to approx 1+ % yearly gains, 7% int rates and neg gearing and all that will be gone especially after enquires and RC's maybe into this mess will change the rules so this can never happen again and ruin Australians lives.Human ARE a gullible lot and need protection from themselves and aust already has all sort of consumer protection rules to stop people getting ripped off. This mess is the BIGGEST rip off in history and was allowed to keep going and going until the inevitable day of reckoning- but the damage now is too great to fix without most being horribly punished Unlike the Stock market where a few get punished, Most Australians are involved in this in some way even if indirectly and now we face the music…
This myth of supply and demand never ends.
Its the availability of credit you nitwits.
interesting the sudden over supply of rentals… I'm trying to see the connection, but i'll try to analyse…but it makes no sense if this is indeed true, which it seems to be.
I always maintain that the high temporary visas were in place to keep new apartments tenanted by overseas students and tourists mainly from asia, china, etc but also from all over the world. Currently there are 30,000 visas that have a "?" around them as immigration is simply treating australia as a revolving door for termporary and bridging visas to the point we've lost track of most of who come in and out. Hence you see a major rise in crime eg. massage parlours, marijuana and meth growing labs… in addition to all the illegal employment contracts paying cash in hand $7/hr to work in casual jobs like resturants and cafes.
Once the government changes policies and clamp down on visas, you will see all the CBD and inner apartments vacate – that would cause a collapse in rentals yields across the board, and collapse in rental prices which is awesome for young people double disaster for investors, imagine a negatively geared property with no tenant or price crash?
Now for the boring analysis..1- Interest Only loans are not being approved causing prices to start falling indefinitely due to bank regulation tightening2- As we know IO loans, negative gearing, rental stock all go hand in glove3- falling current and future house prices are confirmed and reported by all mainstream media now, so game is up. 4- investors who are dumb and havent already got out are now looking to get out – but it would take another year of double digital drops in prices before they realise this5- ??
yet I dont see the connection at this point between rental oversupply and prices, as theres still a lot of temporary visas here , which I dislike as it is only slightly better that a parisian european migrant crisis; only with ours immigration need to just rip up the visa and they will be deported…but I am waiting for the blessed day they just kick out all these stupid tourists who are creating crime and illegal work practices just so they can keep the apartment oversupply and stupid building projects viable
Great vid once again. Please keep up the great work.
Population growth is a function of housing prices – as is employment.
We've certainly addressed our "housing shortage", ah?http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-26/sydney-apartment-prices-continue-fall/10038010?section=business
About time the Aussie property mentality had a reality check!!Easily a 5 year correction is ahead of us! The disparity between GDP, wages and property prices has been a joke!! We are easily on for a 20-40% correction!No average 3 – 4 bedroom house in this country is worth over 700k with the median salary of almost 70k!
Out of curiosity how long have you been claiming that the property market in Australia has been going down, in terms of years?
We could probably haggle rents now, but previously there would be 40 people at a time vying for the same home. rental prices are falling and 2.8% vacancy rate currently, and that doesn't include the 100,000 vacant properties sitting empty from OS investors. YOU DONT BUY IN A FALLING MARKET. I have been attending open inspections and hardly anyone turns up, real estate agents are not putting prices on some homes and are allowing the market to decide. HUGE OVERSUPPLY OF APARTMENTS IN BRISBANE, Banks have blacklisted for lending in the Brisbane market. FEDERAL election 2019, immigration will be high on the agenda regarding restricting immigration into Australia, valuers undervaluing and banks will only lend on these valuations, half a trillion in housing Interest Only loans to be renegotiated, equity is shrinking so banks won't lend. Prices are falling quicker than expected now!
A RECORD glut of vacant apartments across Sydney suburbs is creating “zombie blocks” where one-in-four flats are now empty.Figures released yesterday showed there are 19,572 properties sitting vacant — with Kellyville in the Hills region the worst hit area.https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/sydney-nsw/sydney-rents-fall-as-vacancies-hit-highest-level-on-record/news-story/b29cbc8f9a16793a7867d07d24eccd3c
Immigration, 457 Visas and the illegal immigrants (who have flown into the country approx 60,000.00 in 2011 and more each year) have compounded the problems, if not caused part of the problem. Immigration and the like have put stresses on a system that can’t cope, it’s not the fault of the people that are applying for Australian Citizenship, it’s successive governments over the past 15 years, who do not have the foresight to implement or keep up our standard of living within budget constraints. The problem is impacting everyone asks why do we the “lucky country” rate so high on the Misery Index?
Both Lab / Libs can't fix the problem, the world is still in decline even though politicians are saying otherwise, It's not about the citizens it's about the government neither side wants to reset the status quo on their watch, so they keep on toeing the party line. Australia is a young country with very little infrastructure compared to other regions of the world. Infrastructure is expensive and the country can't rely on convict labour anymore. Manufacturing and Mining industry have declined, all that we have is housing and immigration to prop up a failing system. The elephant in the room now is personal debt, While many other developed countries have seen a decline or “leveling out” of personal debt since the 2008 global financial crisis, Australia’s debt levels have continued to increase. As a result, Australia is now reported to have the second highest personal debt levels in the world.
Now the government is trying to help first home buyers into an overpriced market and take on too much debt. By the time the younger generation have set themselves up to have a family, it will be almost time to retire.
The banking sector will eventually raise interest rates again and cause more housing defaults, the government can then sit back and say it’s the bank’s fault for raising interest rates way above the cash rate.
Some projects in Sydney are stalled, not many people turning up to open inspections and the number of homes on offer is rising…… This population/housing and debt Ponzi is driven by the lowest common denominator. 966,000 HOUSEHOLDS ARE IN MORTGAGE STRESS or 30% of home loans. OS interest rates going up, only a matter of time, banks will raise interest rates, their funding costs are going up now. AUSTRALIA'S POPULATION GROWTH PER CAPITA IS THE HIGHEST IN THE WORLD! NOT FROM NATURAL ATTRITION BUT FROM MOSTLY IMMIGRATION… The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics release 2016-17 revealed 63.2% of Australia’s population growth was due to Net Overseas Migration. 35 Leading to a high population growth rate of 1.6% shown in Table 3 below. The international comparison in Table 3 indicates Australia’s large number of NOM arrivals resulted in a growth rate rising well above that of the World’s average at 1.1%. And considerably higher than the 1st and 2nd most populated countries in the World, China and India respectively. https://immigrationwatchwestaustralia.com
Buyer's market when the prices are expected to rise? Duh
It amazes me how we talk about property like its the share market. This where people live and build their families. The sooner we see the ass end of the market the better for Australia.
You don’t buy in a rising market. Buy when there is less demand and sell when there is demand. The majority of properties, people live in. So prices don’t matter, when and if prices become affordable then buyers will come back in and prices will rise again. For people out of the market, it is better to rent. When more people rent, this will create more competition and then rent will rise. Either way with investors, the tax payers are supplementing the investor by negative gearing , depreciation and tax deductions. In the long term property will still be more valuable than today. 3 or 5 years of decline or no growth is good, as prices can’t continue to rise year on year. Remember it’s a long term investment. I bought my first investment property 1/3 of today’s price. So even if it went down 10 – 30% it won’t change a thing except bring more people into the market. If people can’t afford the prices, then they can move 2hours out of the city where it is cheaper. As long as your employment is not close to the city, you will be fine.